Tukums 1–3 FK Liepaja: Result & Stats | Virsliga

Tukums

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

FK Liepaja

6/25/2025

Virsliga · Round 20Tukuma pilsētas stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Tukums31%

×Draw24%

FK Liepaja45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TukumsExpected goals in this matchFK Liepaja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.66

Tukums

1.35

FK Liepaja

1.66

FK Liepaja creates 23% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 115 away

1.23

creates per match

1.44

1.88

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Tukums

1.23

FK Liepaja

1.44

allows per match

Tukums

1.88

FK Liepaja

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tukums+0.00on par

FK Liepaja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tukums ↓

FK Liepaja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Tukums or draw

55%

Tukums or FK Liepaja

76%

Draw or FK Liepaja

69%

Winning margin

Tukums wins by 2+

14%

FK Liepaja wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Tukums 1+ goals

74%

Tukums 2+ goals

39%

Tukums 3+ goals

15%

FK Liepaja 1+ goals

81%

FK Liepaja 2+ goals

49%

FK Liepaja 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Tukums (draw refunded)

41%

FK Liepaja (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tukums at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.88 · 97 matches

FK Liepaja away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.47 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tukums attack 1.23 + FK Liepaja defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

FK Liepaja attack 1.44 + Tukums defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tukums scores more

31%

level

24%

FK Liepaja scores more

45%

FK Liepaja at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FK Liepaja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff