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Tuisku vs EuPa — Suomen Cup 2018

Tuisku
Tuisku
FT
2 – 9
EuPa
EuPa
4/1/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundKauppi 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tuisku17%
×Draw14%
EuPa69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuisku
2.29
EuPa
4.37

EuPa creates 91% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tuisku
1.57
EuPa
4.60

allows per match

Tuisku
4.14
EuPa
3.00

finishing

Tuisku+0.00on par
EuPa+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuisku ↓

EuPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–23%
1–35%
1–45%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–24%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–23%
3–34%
3–45%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 61% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
88%12%4.5
75%25%

Double chance

Tuisku or draw
31%
Tuisku or EuPa
86%
Draw or EuPa
83%

Winning margin

Tuisku wins by 2+
8%
EuPa wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Tuisku 1+ goals
90%
Tuisku 2+ goals
66%
Tuisku 3+ goals
40%
EuPa 1+ goals
99%
EuPa 2+ goals
92%
EuPa 3+ goals
78%

Draw no bet

Tuisku (draw refunded)
20%
EuPa (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
87%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuisku at home — creates 1.57, concedes 4.14 · 7 matches

EuPa away — creates 4.60, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuisku attack 1.57 + EuPa defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.29

EuPa attack 4.60 + Tuisku defence 4.14 → ÷2 → 4.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Tuisku scores more
17%
level
14%
EuPa scores more
69%

EuPa at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "EuPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tuisku 2 – 9 EuPa

EuPa beat Tuisku 9-2 in Suomen Cup on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Kauppi 3 TN in Tampere.