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Tuisku vs EIF — Suomen Cup 2018

Tuisku
Tuisku
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
EIF
EIF
4/15/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundRovastinkangas TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tuisku12%
×Draw14%
EIF74%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuisku
1.37
EIF
3.35

EIF creates 145% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

creates per match

Tuisku
1.57
EIF
2.56

allows per match

Tuisku
4.14
EIF
1.17

finishing

Tuisku+0.00on par
EIF+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuisku ↓

EIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Tuisku or draw
26%
Tuisku or EIF
86%
Draw or EIF
88%

Winning margin

Tuisku wins by 2+
5%
EIF wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

Tuisku 1+ goals
75%
Tuisku 2+ goals
40%
Tuisku 3+ goals
16%
EIF 1+ goals
96%
EIF 2+ goals
84%
EIF 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

Tuisku (draw refunded)
14%
EIF (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuisku at home — creates 1.57, concedes 4.14 · 7 matches

EIF away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuisku attack 1.57 + EIF defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.37

EIF attack 2.56 + Tuisku defence 4.14 → ÷2 → 3.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Tuisku scores more
12%
level
14%
EIF scores more
74%

EIF at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "EIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tuisku 0 – 6 EIF

EIF beat Tuisku 6-0 in Suomen Cup on April 15, 2025.

The match was played at Rovastinkangas TN in Orivesi.