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Tuilla vs Vallobín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Tuilla
Tuilla
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vallobín
Vallobín
12/15/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Estadio El Candín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Tuilla52%
×Draw25%
Vallobín23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuilla
1.63
Vallobín
0.99

Tuilla creates 65% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 28 away

creates per match

Tuilla
1.39
Vallobín
0.68

allows per match

Tuilla
1.29
Vallobín
1.86

finishing

Tuilla+0.00on par
Vallobín+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuilla ↓

Vallobín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tuilla or draw
77%
Tuilla or Vallobín
75%
Draw or Vallobín
48%

Winning margin

Tuilla wins by 2+
28%
Vallobín wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tuilla 1+ goals
80%
Tuilla 2+ goals
48%
Tuilla 3+ goals
22%
Vallobín 1+ goals
63%
Vallobín 2+ goals
26%
Vallobín 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tuilla (draw refunded)
69%
Vallobín (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuilla at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.29 · 112 matches

Vallobín away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuilla attack 1.39 + Vallobín defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.63

Vallobín attack 0.68 + Tuilla defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tuilla scores more
52%
level
25%
Vallobín scores more
23%

Tuilla at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tuilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Tuilla 2–0 Vallobín

Tuilla beat Vallobín 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 15, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Candín in Tuilla.