Tuilla 2–1 Langreo II: Result & Stats

Tuilla

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Langreo II

3/30/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Estadio El Candín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tuilla52%

×Draw23%

Langreo II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuillaExpected goals in this matchLangreo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.15

Tuilla

1.77

Langreo II

1.15

Tuilla creates 54% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 19 away

1.39

creates per match

1.00

1.29

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Tuilla

1.39

Langreo II

1.00

allows per match

Tuilla

1.29

Langreo II

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tuilla+0.00on par

Langreo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuilla ↓

Langreo II →

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Tuilla or draw

75%

Tuilla or Langreo II

77%

Draw or Langreo II

48%

Winning margin

Tuilla wins by 2+

29%

Langreo II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tuilla 1+ goals

83%

Tuilla 2+ goals

53%

Tuilla 3+ goals

26%

Langreo II 1+ goals

68%

Langreo II 2+ goals

32%

Langreo II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tuilla (draw refunded)

68%

Langreo II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tuilla at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.29 · 112 matches

Langreo II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tuilla attack 1.39 + Langreo II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.77

Langreo II attack 1.00 + Tuilla defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tuilla scores more

52%

level

23%

Langreo II scores more

25%

Tuilla at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tuilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff