Tuilla 2–2 Colunga: Result & Stats

Tuilla

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Colunga

Alex Sandoval 58', 43' (pen)

Diego Nuño 90+1'

Diego Iza 45+1'

2/4/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Estadio El Candín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Tuilla41%

×Draw27%

Colunga32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuillaExpected goals in this matchColunga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.17

Tuilla

1.36

Colunga

1.17

Tuilla creates 16% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 113 away

1.39

creates per match

1.04

1.29

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Tuilla

1.39

Colunga

1.04

allows per match

Tuilla

1.29

Colunga

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tuilla+0.00on par

Colunga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuilla ↓

Colunga →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tuilla or draw

68%

Tuilla or Colunga

73%

Draw or Colunga

59%

Winning margin

Tuilla wins by 2+

19%

Colunga wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tuilla 1+ goals

74%

Tuilla 2+ goals

39%

Tuilla 3+ goals

16%

Colunga 1+ goals

69%

Colunga 2+ goals

33%

Colunga 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tuilla (draw refunded)

56%

Colunga (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tuilla at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.29 · 112 matches

Colunga away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tuilla attack 1.39 + Colunga defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Colunga attack 1.04 + Tuilla defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tuilla scores more

41%

level

27%

Colunga scores more

32%

Tuilla at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tuilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

Diego Iza← Marcos Arango

43'

Alex SandovalPenalty

45+1'

Diego Iza

58'

Alex Sandoval

68'

B. Kovalenko← David Moreno

85'

Joaquín Peña← Pablo Miranda

88'

Sergio Florez← Danny Adu

90+3'

M. Batista← Carlos Barcia

90+1'

Diego Nuño

Tuilla

Colunga

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: Bango

85'▲Joaquín Peña←▼Pablo Miranda

88'▲Sergio Florez←▼Danny Adu

Tuilla substitutes

PeñaFlorez

Manager: Pablo Pantiga

31'▲Diego Iza←▼Marcos Arango

68'▲B. Kovalenko←▼David Moreno

90+3'▲M. Batista←▼Carlos Barcia

Colunga substitutes

IzaKovalenkoBatista

Match Recap: Tuilla vs Colunga

Tuilla and Colunga drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 4, 2024.

Goals: Alex Sandoval (43' pen, 58'), Diego Iza (45+1'), Diego Nuño (90+1').

The match was played at Estadio El Candín in Tuilla.

Tuilla vs Colunga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tuilla vs Colunga