Tuilla 0–1 Avilés Stadium: Result & Stats

Tuilla

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Avilés Stadium

9/7/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Estadio El Candín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Tuilla49%

×Draw25%

Avilés Stadium26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuillaExpected goals in this matchAvilés Stadium

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.07

Tuilla

1.57

Avilés Stadium

1.07

Tuilla creates 47% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 80 away

1.39

creates per match

0.85

1.29

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Tuilla

1.39

Avilés Stadium

0.85

allows per match

Tuilla

1.29

Avilés Stadium

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tuilla+0.00on par

Avilés Stadium+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuilla ↓

Avilés Stadium →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tuilla or draw

74%

Tuilla or Avilés Stadium

75%

Draw or Avilés Stadium

51%

Winning margin

Tuilla wins by 2+

25%

Avilés Stadium wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tuilla 1+ goals

79%

Tuilla 2+ goals

46%

Tuilla 3+ goals

21%

Avilés Stadium 1+ goals

66%

Avilés Stadium 2+ goals

29%

Avilés Stadium 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tuilla (draw refunded)

65%

Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tuilla at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.29 · 112 matches

Avilés Stadium away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tuilla attack 1.39 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Avilés Stadium attack 0.85 + Tuilla defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tuilla scores more

49%

level

25%

Avilés Stadium scores more

26%

Tuilla at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tuilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff