Tudelano 0–1 Zamora: Result & Stats

Tudelano

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Zamora

Jorge Fernández 13'

9/18/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tudelano34%

×Draw30%

Zamora36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TudelanoExpected goals in this matchZamora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.08

Tudelano

1.05

Zamora

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 69 away

0.83

creates per match

1.04

1.11

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Tudelano

0.83

Zamora

1.04

allows per match

Tudelano

1.11

Zamora

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tudelano+0.00on par

Zamora+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tudelano ↓

Zamora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tudelano or draw

64%

Tudelano or Zamora

70%

Draw or Zamora

66%

Winning margin

Tudelano wins by 2+

13%

Zamora wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tudelano 1+ goals

65%

Tudelano 2+ goals

28%

Tudelano 3+ goals

9%

Zamora 1+ goals

66%

Zamora 2+ goals

29%

Zamora 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tudelano (draw refunded)

49%

Zamora (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tudelano at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Zamora away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tudelano attack 0.83 + Zamora defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.05

Zamora attack 1.04 + Tudelano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tudelano scores more

34%

level

30%

Zamora scores more

36%

Zamora at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Zamora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Jorge Fernández

34'

P. Astray

46'

Diego Royo← Fernando Delgado

46'

M. Chavarría← Cedenilla

46'

Marcos Baselga← A. Coscia

52'

53'

59'

61'

63'

Aitor Aranzabe← Rodrigo Sanz

67'

J. Rojo

67'

Julián Luque← Pedro Astray

67'

Kepa Vieites← Jorge Fernández

69'

A. Ribeiro

71'

Vassi← Álex Gualda

75'

Xisco Campos← Javi Navas

78'

S. Samanes

80'

I. Elena

80'

Diego Hernández← Mario Losada

84'

K. Vieites Blazquez

87'

Y. Iribarren

90+7'

Alvaro Molina

Tudelano

Zamora

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Olaizola

46'▲Diego Royo←▼Fernando Delgado

46'▲M. Chavarría←▼Cedenilla

63'▲Aitor Aranzabe←▼Rodrigo Sanz

71'▲Vassi←▼Álex Gualda

Tudelano substitutes

RoyoChavarríaAranzabeVassiAranaGonzálezCabelludFrau

Manager: David Movilla

46'▲Marcos Baselga←▼A. Coscia

67'▲Julián Luque←▼Pedro Astray

67'▲Kepa Vieites←▼Jorge Fernández

75'▲Xisco Campos←▼Javi Navas

80'▲Diego Hernández←▼Mario Losada

Zamora substitutes

BaselgaLuqueVieitesCamposHernándezGarayEspejoBaquéVillanueva

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Tudelano 0–1 Zamora

Zamora beat Tudelano 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 18, 2021.

Goals: Jorge Fernández (13').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela in Tudela.

Tudelano vs Zamora — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Tudelano 0–1 Zamora