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Tudelano vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Tudelano
Tudelano
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
3/1/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tudelano40%
×Draw25%
Unionistas de Salamanca34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tudelano
1.47
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.34

Tudelano creates 10% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Tudelano
1.31
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.31

allows per match

Tudelano
1.38
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.62

finishing

Tudelano+0.00on par
Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tudelano ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tudelano or draw
66%
Tudelano or Unionistas de Salamanca
75%
Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca
60%

Winning margin

Tudelano wins by 2+
19%
Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tudelano 1+ goals
77%
Tudelano 2+ goals
43%
Tudelano 3+ goals
18%
Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
74%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
39%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tudelano (draw refunded)
54%
Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tudelano at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tudelano attack 1.31 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.31 + Tudelano defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tudelano scores more
40%
level
25%
Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
34%

Tudelano at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tudelano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Tudelano 3–1 Unionistas de Salamanca

Tudelano beat Unionistas de Salamanca 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela in Tudela.