Tudelano 1–2 Real Valladolid II: Result & Stats

Tudelano

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Real Valladolid II

4/2/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tudelano38%

×Draw28%

Real Valladolid II34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TudelanoExpected goals in this matchReal Valladolid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.14

Tudelano

1.22

Real Valladolid II

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 31 away

0.83

creates per match

1.16

1.11

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Tudelano

0.83

Real Valladolid II

1.16

allows per match

Tudelano

1.11

Real Valladolid II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tudelano+0.00on par

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tudelano ↓

Real Valladolid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tudelano or draw

66%

Tudelano or Real Valladolid II

72%

Draw or Real Valladolid II

62%

Winning margin

Tudelano wins by 2+

16%

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tudelano 1+ goals

70%

Tudelano 2+ goals

34%

Tudelano 3+ goals

12%

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

68%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

32%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tudelano (draw refunded)

53%

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tudelano at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Real Valladolid II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tudelano attack 0.83 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.22

Real Valladolid II attack 1.16 + Tudelano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tudelano scores more

38%

level

28%

Real Valladolid II scores more

34%

Tudelano at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tudelano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff