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Tudelano vs Rayo Majadahonda — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Tudelano
Tudelano
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
3/19/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tudelano38%
×Draw29%
Rayo Majadahonda33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tudelano
1.15
Rayo Majadahonda
1.04

Tudelano creates 11% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 72 away

creates per match

Tudelano
0.83
Rayo Majadahonda
0.96

allows per match

Tudelano
1.11
Rayo Majadahonda
1.46

finishing

Tudelano+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tudelano ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tudelano or draw
67%
Tudelano or Rayo Majadahonda
71%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
62%

Winning margin

Tudelano wins by 2+
16%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tudelano 1+ goals
68%
Tudelano 2+ goals
32%
Tudelano 3+ goals
11%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
65%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
28%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tudelano (draw refunded)
54%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tudelano at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tudelano attack 0.83 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.15

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Tudelano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tudelano scores more
38%
level
29%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
33%

Tudelano at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tudelano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Tudelano 3–0 Rayo Majadahonda

Tudelano beat Rayo Majadahonda 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela in Tudela.