Tudelano 2–1 Osasuna II: Result & Stats

Tudelano

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Osasuna II

Diego Royo 81'

Fernando Delgado 60'

Marcos Mendes 1'

8/25/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Tudelano42%

×Draw26%

Osasuna II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TudelanoExpected goals in this matchOsasuna II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.17

Tudelano

1.41

Osasuna II

1.17

Tudelano creates 21% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 46 away

1.31

creates per match

0.96

1.38

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Tudelano

1.31

Osasuna II

0.96

allows per match

Tudelano

1.38

Osasuna II

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tudelano+0.00on par

Osasuna II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tudelano ↓

Osasuna II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tudelano or draw

69%

Tudelano or Osasuna II

74%

Draw or Osasuna II

58%

Winning margin

Tudelano wins by 2+

20%

Osasuna II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tudelano 1+ goals

76%

Tudelano 2+ goals

41%

Tudelano 3+ goals

17%

Osasuna II 1+ goals

69%

Osasuna II 2+ goals

33%

Osasuna II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tudelano (draw refunded)

58%

Osasuna II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tudelano at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Osasuna II away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tudelano attack 1.31 + Osasuna II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Osasuna II attack 0.96 + Tudelano defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tudelano scores more

42%

level

26%

Osasuna II scores more

31%

Tudelano at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tudelano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

Marcos Mendes

55'

Iker Berruezo← Daniel Santafé

59'

Álvaro Navarro← Julen Azkue

60'

Fernando Delgado

66'

Álvaro Muro← José Hualde

81'

David Lázaro← Diego Suárez

81'

Diego Royo

82'

Gabri Lizarraga← Aimar Oroz

84'

Á. López← Diego Royo

Tudelano

Osasuna

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Lumbreras

59'▲Álvaro Navarro←▼Julen Azkue

81'▲David Lázaro←▼Diego Suárez

84'▲Á. López←▼Diego Royo

Tudelano substitutes

NavarroLázaroLópezSocorroJiménezLópezZamorano

Manager: Santi Castillejo

55'▲Iker Berruezo←▼Daniel Santafé

66'▲Álvaro Muro←▼José Hualde

82'▲Gabri Lizarraga←▼Aimar Oroz

Osasuna II substitutes

BerruezoMuroLizarragaMeoquiGonzálezZabarteMartínez