Tudelano 2–1 Leioa: Result & Stats

Tudelano

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Leioa

Koldo Obieta 80'

E. Torres 24'

Chris 15'

11/3/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Tudelano50%

×Draw25%

Leioa25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TudelanoExpected goals in this matchLeioa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.01

Tudelano

1.56

Leioa

1.01

Tudelano creates 54% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 28 away

1.31

creates per match

0.64

1.38

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Tudelano

1.31

Leioa

0.64

allows per match

Tudelano

1.38

Leioa

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tudelano+0.00on par

Leioa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tudelano ↓

Leioa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tudelano or draw

75%

Tudelano or Leioa

75%

Draw or Leioa

50%

Winning margin

Tudelano wins by 2+

26%

Leioa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tudelano 1+ goals

79%

Tudelano 2+ goals

46%

Tudelano 3+ goals

21%

Leioa 1+ goals

64%

Leioa 2+ goals

27%

Leioa 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tudelano (draw refunded)

67%

Leioa (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tudelano at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Leioa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tudelano attack 1.31 + Leioa defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

Leioa attack 0.64 + Tudelano defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tudelano scores more

50%

level

25%

Leioa scores more

25%

Tudelano at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tudelano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Chris

24'

E. Torres

46'

Julen Azkue← Álvaro Meseguer

59'

David Soto← Iñaki Jiménez

62'

Raly← Chris

66'

Unai Zamorano← E. Torres

72'

Xabi Etxebarría← Marc Baró

80'

Koldo Obieta

Tudelano

Leioa

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: Lumbreras

46'▲Julen Azkue←▼Álvaro Meseguer

59'▲David Soto←▼Iñaki Jiménez

66'▲Unai Zamorano←▼E. Torres

Tudelano substitutes

AzkueSotoZamoranoSocorroLázaroDíazLópez

Manager: Jon Lambea

62'▲Raly←▼Chris

72'▲Xabi Etxebarría←▼Marc Baró

Leioa substitutes

RalyEtxebarríaIturriozVich