Tudelano 1–0 Internacional de Madrid

Tudelano

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional de Madrid

L. Aveldaño 48'

2/20/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tudelano40%

×Draw30%

Internacional de Madrid30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TudelanoExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.94

Tudelano

1.13

Internacional de Madrid

0.94

Tudelano creates 20% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 33 away

0.83

creates per match

0.76

1.11

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Tudelano

0.83

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

Tudelano

1.11

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tudelano+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tudelano ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tudelano or draw

70%

Tudelano or Internacional de Madrid

70%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

60%

Winning margin

Tudelano wins by 2+

17%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tudelano 1+ goals

68%

Tudelano 2+ goals

31%

Tudelano 3+ goals

11%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

61%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

24%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tudelano (draw refunded)

57%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tudelano at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tudelano attack 0.83 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.13

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Tudelano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tudelano scores more

40%

level

30%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

30%

Tudelano at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tudelano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

28'

36'

42'

45'

46'

C. Vázquez← Diego Royo

48'

L. Aveldaño

62'

A. Marín← A. Alonso

62'

Iván López← Alain Ribeiro

63'

Álvaro Martín← Reguera

63'

Marcos Bravo← Alvar Herrero

71'

Aitor González← Álex Gualda

71'

S. Brulmans← Álex Zambrano

73'

D. Barral

77'

Pitu

79'

P. Caballero← B. Compaore

80'

Abdullá Washington← Jesús Moyano

80'

Alberto Gil← Pitu

Tudelano

Internacional

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Carlos Pérez

46'▲C. Vázquez←▼Diego Royo

62'▲A. Marín←▼A. Alonso

62'▲Iván López←▼Alain Ribeiro

71'▲Aitor González←▼Álex Gualda

79'▲P. Caballero←▼B. Compaore

Tudelano substitutes

VázquezMarínLópezGonzálezCaballeroCabelludLaerteZabal

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

63'▲Álvaro Martín←▼Reguera

63'▲Marcos Bravo←▼Alvar Herrero

71'▲S. Brulmans←▼Álex Zambrano

80'▲Abdullá Washington←▼Jesús Moyano

80'▲Alberto Gil←▼Pitu

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

MartínBravoBrulmansWashingtonGilMasogoSiuKolderiuYelco

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Tudelano 1–0 Internacional de Madrid

Tudelano beat Internacional de Madrid 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 20, 2022.

Goals: L. Aveldaño (48').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela in Tudela.

Tudelano vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Tudelano 1–0 Internacional de Madrid