Tudelano 1–1 Guijuelo: Result & Stats

Tudelano

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Guijuelo

L. Olivas 73'

D. Sikorski 62'

10/20/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Tudelano42%

×Draw28%

Guijuelo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TudelanoExpected goals in this matchGuijuelo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.04

Tudelano

1.30

Guijuelo

1.04

Tudelano creates 25% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 14 away

1.31

creates per match

0.71

1.38

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Tudelano

1.31

Guijuelo

0.71

allows per match

Tudelano

1.38

Guijuelo

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tudelano+0.00on par

Guijuelo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tudelano ↓

Guijuelo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tudelano or draw

70%

Tudelano or Guijuelo

72%

Draw or Guijuelo

58%

Winning margin

Tudelano wins by 2+

19%

Guijuelo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tudelano 1+ goals

73%

Tudelano 2+ goals

37%

Tudelano 3+ goals

14%

Guijuelo 1+ goals

65%

Guijuelo 2+ goals

28%

Guijuelo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tudelano (draw refunded)

59%

Guijuelo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tudelano at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Guijuelo away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tudelano attack 1.31 + Guijuelo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.30

Guijuelo attack 0.71 + Tudelano defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tudelano scores more

42%

level

28%

Guijuelo scores more

30%

Tudelano at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tudelano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

D. Sikorski

64'

Pepe Carmona← Cristóbal Gil

65'

Diego Suárez← Julen Azkue

70'

Carlos Rubén← Pablo Espina

73'

L. Olivas

83'

Adrián Socorro← D. Cortés

88'

Dani Hernández← Luis Lara

Tudelano

Guijuelo

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Lumbreras

65'▲Diego Suárez←▼Julen Azkue

83'▲Adrián Socorro←▼D. Cortés

Tudelano substitutes

SuárezSocorroRoyoTorresJiménezLópezZamorano

Manager: Ángel Sánchez

64'▲Pepe Carmona←▼Cristóbal Gil

70'▲Carlos Rubén←▼Pablo Espina

88'▲Dani Hernández←▼Luis Lara

Guijuelo substitutes

CarmonaRubénHernándezCruzDiesteKonatéFékir