Tudelano 0–2 CF Talavera: Result & Stats

Tudelano

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

CF Talavera

Dani Pichín 85'

Christian Perales 25'

11/6/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tudelano41%

×Draw28%

CF Talavera30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TudelanoExpected goals in this matchCF Talavera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.02

Tudelano

1.24

CF Talavera

1.02

Tudelano creates 22% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 54 away

0.83

creates per match

0.94

1.11

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Tudelano

0.83

CF Talavera

0.94

allows per match

Tudelano

1.11

CF Talavera

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tudelano+0.00on par

CF Talavera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tudelano ↓

CF Talavera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tudelano or draw

70%

Tudelano or CF Talavera

72%

Draw or CF Talavera

59%

Winning margin

Tudelano wins by 2+

18%

CF Talavera wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tudelano 1+ goals

71%

Tudelano 2+ goals

35%

Tudelano 3+ goals

13%

CF Talavera 1+ goals

64%

CF Talavera 2+ goals

27%

CF Talavera 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tudelano (draw refunded)

58%

CF Talavera (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tudelano at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

CF Talavera away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tudelano attack 0.83 + CF Talavera defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.24

CF Talavera attack 0.94 + Tudelano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tudelano scores more

41%

level

28%

CF Talavera scores more

30%

Tudelano at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tudelano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

J. Ceberio

25'

Christian Perales

37'

P. Caballero

46'

M. Chavarría← P. Caballero

46'

Pablo Monroy← U. Adighibe

57'

Gongora

61'

F. Delgado

65'

Dani Pichín← Juan Góngora

65'

Víctor Ruiz← David Añón

66'

S. Samanes

69'

Iván Cabellud← Santi Samanes

78'

M. Chavarria

78'

Iribarren← Fernando Delgado

80'

Iván Elena← Rodrigo Sanz

82'

B. Diaz

82'

Juanma Fernández← Christian Perales

85'

Dani Pichín

90'

A. Gonzalez

90'

A. Ribeiro

90'

Rodrigo Farofa← Jon Ceberio

Tudelano

CF

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Carlos Pérez

46'▲M. Chavarría←▼P. Caballero

69'▲Iván Cabellud←▼Santi Samanes

78'▲Iribarren←▼Fernando Delgado

80'▲Iván Elena←▼Rodrigo Sanz

Tudelano substitutes

ChavarríaCabelludIribarrenElenaGualdaCedenillaPellegrinoFrauVassi

Manager: Víctor Cea

46'▲Pablo Monroy←▼U. Adighibe

65'▲Dani Pichín←▼Juan Góngora

65'▲Víctor Ruiz←▼David Añón

82'▲Juanma Fernández←▼Christian Perales

90'▲Rodrigo Farofa←▼Jon Ceberio

CF Talavera substitutes

MonroyPichínRuizFernándezFarofaSantosOrtegaRusanovÑoñoDomínguezTotedaMiño

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Tudelano 0–2 CF Talavera

CF Talavera beat Tudelano 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 6, 2021.

Goals: Christian Perales (25'), Dani Pichín (85').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela in Tudela.

Tudelano vs CF Talavera — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Tudelano 0–2 CF Talavera