Tudelano 2–0 Celta de Vigo II: Result & Stats

Tudelano

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Celta de Vigo II

P. Caballero 16'

Álex Gualda 2'

12/19/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tudelano32%

×Draw28%

Celta de Vigo II40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TudelanoExpected goals in this matchCelta de Vigo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.22

Tudelano

1.06

Celta de Vigo II

1.22

Celta de Vigo II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 120 away

0.83

creates per match

1.33

1.11

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Tudelano

0.83

Celta de Vigo II

1.33

allows per match

Tudelano

1.11

Celta de Vigo II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tudelano+0.00on par

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tudelano ↓

Celta de Vigo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tudelano or draw

60%

Tudelano or Celta de Vigo II

72%

Draw or Celta de Vigo II

68%

Winning margin

Tudelano wins by 2+

12%

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tudelano 1+ goals

65%

Tudelano 2+ goals

29%

Tudelano 3+ goals

9%

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

70%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

34%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tudelano (draw refunded)

44%

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tudelano at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tudelano attack 0.83 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.06

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Tudelano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tudelano scores more

32%

level

28%

Celta de Vigo II scores more

40%

Celta de Vigo II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Celta de Vigo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

16'

48'

53'

60'

60'

62'

Fernando Medrano← Javi Gómez

62'

Gabri Veiga← Carlos Domínguez

62'

T. Carrique← Miguel Rodríguez

76'

Aitor González← Rodrigo Sanz

77'

Cedric Teguia← Álex Carbonell

77'

Fabrício← Alfon González

87'

L. Aveldano

90'

Alex Martin

90+4'

Iván Cabellud← Santi Samanes

90+1'

Iván Elena← Álex Gualda

Tudelano

Celta

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Gualda

⚽

Caballero

▼

Sanz

Manager: Carlos Pérez

76'▲Aitor González←▼Rodrigo Sanz

90+4'▲Iván Cabellud←▼Santi Samanes

90+1'▲Iván Elena←▼Álex Gualda

Tudelano substitutes

GonzálezCabelludElenaChavarríaZabalFrauVassi

Manager: Onésimo

62'▲Fernando Medrano←▼Javi Gómez

62'▲Gabri Veiga←▼Carlos Domínguez

62'▲T. Carrique←▼Miguel Rodríguez

77'▲Cedric Teguia←▼Álex Carbonell

77'▲Fabrício←▼Alfon González

Celta de Vigo II substitutes

MedranoVeigaCarriqueTeguiaFabrícioBeitiaGarcía

Match Recap: Tudelano vs Celta de Vigo II

Tudelano beat Celta de Vigo II 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 19, 2021.

Goals: Álex Gualda (2'), P. Caballero (16').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela in Tudela.

Tudelano vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tudelano vs Celta de Vigo II