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Tucson vs Capo II — USL League Two 2026

Tucson
Tucson
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Capo II
Capo II
6/12/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 9Kino North Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tucson62%
×Draw18%
Capo II20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tucson
2.56
Capo II
1.40

Tucson creates 83% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

creates per match

Tucson
3.47
Capo II
2.09

allows per match

Tucson
0.71
Capo II
1.64

finishing

Tucson+0.00on par
Capo II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tucson ↓

Capo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Tucson or draw
80%
Tucson or Capo II
82%
Draw or Capo II
38%

Winning margin

Tucson wins by 2+
41%
Capo II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tucson 1+ goals
92%
Tucson 2+ goals
72%
Tucson 3+ goals
46%
Capo II 1+ goals
75%
Capo II 2+ goals
41%
Capo II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tucson (draw refunded)
76%
Capo II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tucson at home — creates 3.47, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Capo II away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tucson attack 3.47 + Capo II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.56

Capo II attack 2.09 + Tucson defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Tucson scores more
62%
level
18%
Capo II scores more
20%

Tucson at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Tucson will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tucson 1 – 3 Capo II

Capo II beat Tucson 3-1 in USL League Two on June 12, 2024.

The match was played at Kino North Stadium in Tucson, Arizona.