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Tubarao vs Novo Hamburgo — Serie D 2018

Tubarao
Tubarao
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Novo Hamburgo
Novo Hamburgo
5/20/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 5Estádio Domingos Silveira Gonzales (Tubarão, Santa Catarina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Tubarao40%
×Draw30%
Novo Hamburgo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tubarao
1.11
Novo Hamburgo
0.93

Tubarao creates 19% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

creates per match

Tubarao
1.00
Novo Hamburgo
0.78

allows per match

Tubarao
1.07
Novo Hamburgo
1.22

finishing

Tubarao+0.00on par
Novo Hamburgo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tubarao ↓

Novo Hamburgo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tubarao or draw
70%
Tubarao or Novo Hamburgo
70%
Draw or Novo Hamburgo
60%

Winning margin

Tubarao wins by 2+
16%
Novo Hamburgo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tubarao 1+ goals
67%
Tubarao 2+ goals
30%
Tubarao 3+ goals
10%
Novo Hamburgo 1+ goals
61%
Novo Hamburgo 2+ goals
24%
Novo Hamburgo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tubarao (draw refunded)
57%
Novo Hamburgo (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tubarao at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Novo Hamburgo away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tubarao attack 1.00 + Novo Hamburgo defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Novo Hamburgo attack 0.78 + Tubarao defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tubarao scores more
40%
level
30%
Novo Hamburgo scores more
30%

Tubarao at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tubarao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Tubarao 1–2 Novo Hamburgo

Novo Hamburgo beat Tubarao 2-1 in Serie D on May 20, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Domingos Silveira Gonzales (Tubarão, Santa Catarina).