Tubarao 6–0 FC Porto: Result & Stats

Tubarao

FT

6 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Porto

7/20/2025

Catarinense - 2 · Round 8Estádio Domingos Silveira Gonzales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tubarao80%

×Draw13%

FC Porto7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TubaraoExpected goals in this matchFC Porto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

0.77

Tubarao

2.92

FC Porto

0.77

Tubarao creates 279% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 4 away

1.33

creates per match

0.25

1.29

allows per match

4.50

creates per match

Tubarao

1.33

FC Porto

0.25

allows per match

Tubarao

1.29

FC Porto

4.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tubarao+0.00on par

FC Porto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tubarao ↓

FC Porto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Tubarao or draw

93%

Tubarao or FC Porto

87%

Draw or FC Porto

20%

Winning margin

Tubarao wins by 2+

61%

FC Porto wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Tubarao 1+ goals

94%

Tubarao 2+ goals

78%

Tubarao 3+ goals

55%

FC Porto 1+ goals

54%

FC Porto 2+ goals

18%

FC Porto 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Tubarao (draw refunded)

92%

FC Porto (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tubarao at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

FC Porto away — creates 0.25, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tubarao attack 1.33 + FC Porto defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 2.92

FC Porto attack 0.25 + Tubarao defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Tubarao scores more

80%

level

13%

FC Porto scores more

7%

Tubarao at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Tubarao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff