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Tubarao vs Carlos Renaux — Catarinense - 2 2022

Tubarao
Tubarao
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Carlos Renaux
Carlos Renaux
6/9/2024Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · Round 3Estádio Domingos Silveira Gonzales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tubarao39%
×Draw27%
Carlos Renaux34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tubarao
1.28
Carlos Renaux
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

creates per match

Tubarao
1.33
Carlos Renaux
1.09

allows per match

Tubarao
1.29
Carlos Renaux
1.23

finishing

Tubarao+0.00on par
Carlos Renaux+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tubarao ↓

Carlos Renaux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tubarao or draw
66%
Tubarao or Carlos Renaux
73%
Draw or Carlos Renaux
61%

Winning margin

Tubarao wins by 2+
17%
Carlos Renaux wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tubarao 1+ goals
72%
Tubarao 2+ goals
37%
Tubarao 3+ goals
14%
Carlos Renaux 1+ goals
70%
Carlos Renaux 2+ goals
33%
Carlos Renaux 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tubarao (draw refunded)
53%
Carlos Renaux (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tubarao at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Carlos Renaux away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tubarao attack 1.33 + Carlos Renaux defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.28

Carlos Renaux attack 1.09 + Tubarao defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tubarao scores more
39%
level
27%
Carlos Renaux scores more
34%

Tubarao at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tubarao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tubarao vs Carlos Renaux

Tubarao and Carlos Renaux drew 0-0 in Catarinense - 2 on June 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Domingos Silveira Gonzales in Tubarão, Santa Catarina.