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Tuapse vs SKA Rostov — Second League - Group 1 2020

Tuapse
Tuapse
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SKA Rostov
SKA Rostov
9/21/2020Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Stadion Vodnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Tuapse23%
×Draw22%
SKA Rostov55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuapse
1.22
SKA Rostov
1.99

SKA Rostov creates 63% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 58 away

creates per match

Tuapse
1.25
SKA Rostov
1.79

allows per match

Tuapse
2.19
SKA Rostov
1.19

finishing

Tuapse+0.00on par
SKA Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuapse ↓

SKA Rostov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Tuapse or draw
45%
Tuapse or SKA Rostov
78%
Draw or SKA Rostov
77%

Winning margin

Tuapse wins by 2+
9%
SKA Rostov wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Tuapse 1+ goals
70%
Tuapse 2+ goals
34%
Tuapse 3+ goals
12%
SKA Rostov 1+ goals
86%
SKA Rostov 2+ goals
59%
SKA Rostov 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Tuapse (draw refunded)
30%
SKA Rostov (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuapse at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.19 · 32 matches

SKA Rostov away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.19 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuapse attack 1.25 + SKA Rostov defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.22

SKA Rostov attack 1.79 + Tuapse defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tuapse scores more
23%
level
22%
SKA Rostov scores more
55%

SKA Rostov at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SKA Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tuapse vs SKA Rostov

Tuapse and SKA Rostov drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 1 on September 21, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Vodnik in Tuapse.