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Tuapse vs Legion Dynamo — Second League - Group 1 2020

Tuapse
Tuapse
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 0
Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
5/16/2022Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Stadion Vodnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Tuapse26%
×Draw23%
Legion Dynamo51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuapse
1.21
Legion Dynamo
1.79

Legion Dynamo creates 48% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 89 away

creates per match

Tuapse
1.25
Legion Dynamo
1.39

allows per match

Tuapse
2.19
Legion Dynamo
1.18

finishing

Tuapse+0.00on par
Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuapse ↓

Legion Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Tuapse or draw
49%
Tuapse or Legion Dynamo
77%
Draw or Legion Dynamo
74%

Winning margin

Tuapse wins by 2+
10%
Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Tuapse 1+ goals
70%
Tuapse 2+ goals
34%
Tuapse 3+ goals
12%
Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
83%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
53%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Tuapse (draw refunded)
34%
Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuapse at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.19 · 32 matches

Legion Dynamo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuapse attack 1.25 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Legion Dynamo attack 1.39 + Tuapse defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tuapse scores more
26%
level
23%
Legion Dynamo scores more
51%

Legion Dynamo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tuapse vs Legion Dynamo

Legion Dynamo beat Tuapse 5-0 in Second League - Group 1 on May 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Vodnik in Tuapse.