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Tuapse vs Dinamo Stavropol — Second League - Group 1 2020

Tuapse
Tuapse
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
4/22/2022Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Stadion Vodnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Tuapse30%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Stavropol47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuapse
1.32
Dinamo Stavropol
1.71

Dinamo Stavropol creates 30% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 92 away

creates per match

Tuapse
1.25
Dinamo Stavropol
1.22

allows per match

Tuapse
2.19
Dinamo Stavropol
1.39

finishing

Tuapse+0.00on par
Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuapse ↓

Dinamo Stavropol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tuapse or draw
53%
Tuapse or Dinamo Stavropol
76%
Draw or Dinamo Stavropol
70%

Winning margin

Tuapse wins by 2+
13%
Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Tuapse 1+ goals
73%
Tuapse 2+ goals
38%
Tuapse 3+ goals
15%
Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
82%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
51%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Tuapse (draw refunded)
39%
Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuapse at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.19 · 32 matches

Dinamo Stavropol away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.39 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuapse attack 1.25 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.22 + Tuapse defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tuapse scores more
30%
level
24%
Dinamo Stavropol scores more
47%

Dinamo Stavropol at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dinamo Stavropol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Tuapse 2–1 Dinamo Stavropol

Tuapse beat Dinamo Stavropol 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on April 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Vodnik in Tuapse.