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Tuapse vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Second League - Group 1 2020

Tuapse
Tuapse
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
9/4/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Stadion Vodnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Tuapse24%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Makhachkala52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuapse
1.09
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.73

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 59% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

Tuapse
1.25
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.28

allows per match

Tuapse
2.19
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.94

finishing

Tuapse+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuapse ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tuapse or draw
48%
Tuapse or Dinamo Makhachkala
76%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
76%

Winning margin

Tuapse wins by 2+
9%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Tuapse 1+ goals
66%
Tuapse 2+ goals
30%
Tuapse 3+ goals
10%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
82%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
52%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Tuapse (draw refunded)
31%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuapse at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.19 · 32 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuapse attack 1.25 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.09

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.28 + Tuapse defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tuapse scores more
24%
level
24%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
52%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tuapse vs Dinamo Makhachkala

Dinamo Makhachkala beat Tuapse 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Vodnik in Tuapse.