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Tuapse vs Chayka — Second League - Group 1 2020

Tuapse
Tuapse
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Chayka
Chayka
7/24/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Stadion Vodnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Tuapse14%
×Draw19%
Chayka67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuapse
0.93
Chayka
2.25

Chayka creates 142% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

creates per match

Tuapse
1.25
Chayka
2.32

allows per match

Tuapse
2.19
Chayka
0.61

finishing

Tuapse+0.00on par
Chayka+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuapse ↓

Chayka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Tuapse or draw
33%
Tuapse or Chayka
81%
Draw or Chayka
86%

Winning margin

Tuapse wins by 2+
5%
Chayka wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Tuapse 1+ goals
61%
Tuapse 2+ goals
24%
Tuapse 3+ goals
7%
Chayka 1+ goals
89%
Chayka 2+ goals
65%
Chayka 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Tuapse (draw refunded)
18%
Chayka (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuapse at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.19 · 32 matches

Chayka away — creates 2.32, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuapse attack 1.25 + Chayka defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.93

Chayka attack 2.32 + Tuapse defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Tuapse scores more
14%
level
19%
Chayka scores more
67%

Chayka at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tuapse vs Chayka

Chayka beat Tuapse 3-0 in Second League - Group 1 on July 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Vodnik in Tuapse.