TSV Steinbach 6–1 Finnentrop / Bamenohl

TSV Steinbach

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

C. Theisen 90+1'

C. Maier 65'

N. Fischer 55'

M. Jung 45'

S. Firat 22'

T. Streller 18'

P. Hennes 60'

7/15/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3SIBRE Sportzentrum Haarwasen Haiger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

TSV Steinbach75%

×Draw15%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl10%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TSV SteinbachExpected goals in this matchFinnentrop / Bamenohl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.59

0.81

TSV Steinbach

2.59

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

0.81

TSV Steinbach creates 220% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

3.18

creates per match

0.80

0.82

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

TSV Steinbach

3.18

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

0.80

allows per match

TSV Steinbach

0.82

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TSV Steinbach+0.00on par

Finnentrop / Bamenohl+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Steinbach ↓

Finnentrop / Bamenohl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

TSV Steinbach or draw

90%

TSV Steinbach or Finnentrop / Bamenohl

85%

Draw or Finnentrop / Bamenohl

25%

Winning margin

TSV Steinbach wins by 2+

53%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

TSV Steinbach 1+ goals

92%

TSV Steinbach 2+ goals

73%

TSV Steinbach 3+ goals

47%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 1+ goals

56%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 2+ goals

19%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

TSV Steinbach (draw refunded)

89%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Steinbach at home — creates 3.18, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Finnentrop / Bamenohl away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Steinbach attack 3.18 + Finnentrop / Bamenohl defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.59

Finnentrop / Bamenohl attack 0.80 + TSV Steinbach defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

TSV Steinbach scores more

75%

level

15%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl scores more

10%

TSV Steinbach at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "TSV Steinbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

T. Streller

22'

S. Firat

45'

M. Jung↳ S. Firat

55'

N. Fischer

60'

P. Hennes

65'

C. Maier

90+1'

C. Theisen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff