TSV Steinbach 4–2 FC Astoria Walldorf

TSV Steinbach

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

FC Astoria Walldorf

G. Lee 90'

A. Sirin 84'

S. Firat 65'

M. Guthorl 11'

R. Hauk 87'

T. Politakis 30'

8/16/2025

League #86 · Südwest - 3SIBRE Sportzentrum Haarwasen Haiger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

TSV Steinbach52%

×Draw22%

FC Astoria Walldorf27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TSV SteinbachExpected goals in this matchFC Astoria Walldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.40

TSV Steinbach

2.02

FC Astoria Walldorf

1.40

TSV Steinbach creates 44% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 20 away

2.29

creates per match

1.30

1.50

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

TSV Steinbach

2.29

FC Astoria Walldorf

1.30

allows per match

TSV Steinbach

1.50

FC Astoria Walldorf

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TSV Steinbach+0.00on par

FC Astoria Walldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Steinbach ↓

FC Astoria Walldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

TSV Steinbach or draw

73%

TSV Steinbach or FC Astoria Walldorf

78%

Draw or FC Astoria Walldorf

48%

Winning margin

TSV Steinbach wins by 2+

30%

FC Astoria Walldorf wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

TSV Steinbach 1+ goals

87%

TSV Steinbach 2+ goals

60%

TSV Steinbach 3+ goals

33%

FC Astoria Walldorf 1+ goals

75%

FC Astoria Walldorf 2+ goals

41%

FC Astoria Walldorf 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

TSV Steinbach (draw refunded)

66%

FC Astoria Walldorf (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Steinbach at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

FC Astoria Walldorf away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Steinbach attack 2.29 + FC Astoria Walldorf defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.02

FC Astoria Walldorf attack 1.30 + TSV Steinbach defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

TSV Steinbach scores more

52%

level

22%

FC Astoria Walldorf scores more

27%

TSV Steinbach at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "TSV Steinbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

30'

65'

84'

87'

90'

TSV

FC

Manager: H. Tahiri

Manager: M. Born