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TSV Steinbach vs Bergisch Gladbach — Friendlies Clubs 2026

TSV Steinbach
TSV Steinbach
FT
5 – 1
Bergisch Gladbach
Bergisch Gladbach
7/10/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3SIBRE Sportzentrum Haarwasen Haiger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

TSV Steinbach49%
×Draw20%
Bergisch Gladbach30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSV Steinbach
2.25
Bergisch Gladbach
1.75

TSV Steinbach creates 29% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

TSV Steinbach
2.17
Bergisch Gladbach
2.50

allows per match

TSV Steinbach
1.00
Bergisch Gladbach
2.33

finishing

TSV Steinbach+0.00on par
Bergisch Gladbach+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Steinbach ↓

Bergisch Gladbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

TSV Steinbach or draw
70%
TSV Steinbach or Bergisch Gladbach
80%
Draw or Bergisch Gladbach
51%

Winning margin

TSV Steinbach wins by 2+
29%
Bergisch Gladbach wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

TSV Steinbach 1+ goals
89%
TSV Steinbach 2+ goals
65%
TSV Steinbach 3+ goals
39%
Bergisch Gladbach 1+ goals
83%
Bergisch Gladbach 2+ goals
52%
Bergisch Gladbach 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

TSV Steinbach (draw refunded)
62%
Bergisch Gladbach (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Steinbach at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Bergisch Gladbach away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Steinbach attack 2.17 + Bergisch Gladbach defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.25

Bergisch Gladbach attack 2.50 + TSV Steinbach defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

TSV Steinbach scores more
49%
level
20%
Bergisch Gladbach scores more
30%

TSV Steinbach at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "TSV Steinbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TSV Steinbach vs Bergisch Gladbach

TSV Steinbach beat Bergisch Gladbach 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 10, 2021.

The match was played at SIBRE Sportzentrum Haarwasen Haiger in Haiger.