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TSV St. Johann vs Silz / Mötz — Regionalliga - West 2018

TSV St. Johann
TSV St. Johann
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Silz / Mötz
Silz / Mötz
3/23/2024Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · West - 18Sportplatz St. Johann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

TSV St. Johann52%
×Draw21%
Silz / Mötz28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSV St. Johann
2.21
Silz / Mötz
1.58

TSV St. Johann creates 40% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 15 away

creates per match

TSV St. Johann
1.89
Silz / Mötz
1.80

allows per match

TSV St. Johann
1.36
Silz / Mötz
2.53

finishing

TSV St. Johann+0.00on par
Silz / Mötz+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV St. Johann ↓

Silz / Mötz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

TSV St. Johann or draw
72%
TSV St. Johann or Silz / Mötz
79%
Draw or Silz / Mötz
48%

Winning margin

TSV St. Johann wins by 2+
31%
Silz / Mötz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

TSV St. Johann 1+ goals
89%
TSV St. Johann 2+ goals
65%
TSV St. Johann 3+ goals
38%
Silz / Mötz 1+ goals
79%
Silz / Mötz 2+ goals
47%
Silz / Mötz 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

TSV St. Johann (draw refunded)
65%
Silz / Mötz (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV St. Johann at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.36 · 64 matches

Silz / Mötz away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV St. Johann attack 1.89 + Silz / Mötz defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.21

Silz / Mötz attack 1.80 + TSV St. Johann defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

TSV St. Johann scores more
52%
level
21%
Silz / Mötz scores more
28%

TSV St. Johann at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "TSV St. Johann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TSV St. Johann vs Silz / Mötz

Silz / Mötz beat TSV St. Johann 4-2 in Regionalliga - West on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz St. Johann in St. Johann im Pongau.