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TSV St. Johann vs Lustenau — Regionalliga - West 2025

TSV St. Johann
TSV St. Johann
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Lustenau
Lustenau
K. Ozkan 80'
R. Kosakiewic 67', 36' (pen)
M. Ozturk 61', 54'
K. Kalkan 42'
11/15/2025Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · West - 17Sportplatz St. Johann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

TSV St. Johann60%
×Draw19%
Lustenau21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSV St. Johann
2.34
Lustenau
1.32

TSV St. Johann creates 77% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 16 away

creates per match

TSV St. Johann
1.75
Lustenau
1.31

allows per match

TSV St. Johann
1.33
Lustenau
2.94

finishing

TSV St. Johann+0.00on par
Lustenau+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV St. Johann ↓

Lustenau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

TSV St. Johann or draw
79%
TSV St. Johann or Lustenau
81%
Draw or Lustenau
40%

Winning margin

TSV St. Johann wins by 2+
38%
Lustenau wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

TSV St. Johann 1+ goals
90%
TSV St. Johann 2+ goals
67%
TSV St. Johann 3+ goals
41%
Lustenau 1+ goals
73%
Lustenau 2+ goals
38%
Lustenau 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

TSV St. Johann (draw refunded)
74%
Lustenau (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV St. Johann at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

Lustenau away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV St. Johann attack 1.75 + Lustenau defence 2.94 → ÷2 → 2.34

Lustenau attack 1.31 + TSV St. Johann defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

TSV St. Johann scores more
60%
level
19%
Lustenau scores more
21%

TSV St. Johann at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "TSV St. Johann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
R. KosakiewicPenalty
42'
K. Kalkan
54'
M. Ozturk
61'
M. Ozturk
67'
R. Kosakiewic
80'
K. Ozkan
TSV
Lustenau
A. Scherer
Manager: A. Scherer
P. Hagspiel
Manager: P. Hagspiel

Regionalliga - West: TSV St. Johann 5–1 Lustenau

TSV St. Johann beat Lustenau 5-1 in Regionalliga - West on November 15, 2025.

Goals: R. Kosakiewic (36' pen, 67'), K. Kalkan (42'), M. Ozturk (54', 61'), K. Ozkan (80').

The match was played at Sportplatz St. Johann in St. Johann im Pongau.