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TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach — Bundesliga 2018

TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SCR Altach
SCR Altach
2/14/2026BundesligaBundesliga · Round 19Stadion Hartberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

TSV Hartberg42%
×Draw26%
SCR Altach33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSV Hartberg
1.45
SCR Altach
1.25

TSV Hartberg creates 16% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 129 away

creates per match

TSV Hartberg
1.30
SCR Altach
0.96

allows per match

TSV Hartberg
1.55
SCR Altach
1.60

finishing

TSV Hartberg+0.00on par
SCR Altach+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Hartberg ↓

SCR Altach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

TSV Hartberg or draw
67%
TSV Hartberg or SCR Altach
74%
Draw or SCR Altach
58%

Winning margin

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+
20%
SCR Altach wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals
77%
TSV Hartberg 2+ goals
42%
TSV Hartberg 3+ goals
18%
SCR Altach 1+ goals
71%
SCR Altach 2+ goals
36%
SCR Altach 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)
56%
SCR Altach (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Hartberg at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.55 · 131 matches

SCR Altach away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.60 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Hartberg attack 1.30 + SCR Altach defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

SCR Altach attack 0.96 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

TSV Hartberg scores more
42%
level
26%
SCR Altach scores more
33%

TSV Hartberg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "TSV Hartberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: TSV Hartberg 0–0 SCR Altach

TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach drew 0-0 in Bundesliga on February 14, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Hartberg in Hartberg.