TSV Hartberg 2–0 SCR Altach: Result & Stats

TSV Hartberg

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SCR Altach

P. Mijić 68'

D. Avdijaj 48'

9/29/2024

Bundesliga · Round 8PROfertil ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

TSV Hartberg39%

×Draw27%

SCR Altach33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TSV HartbergExpected goals in this matchSCR Altach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.16

TSV Hartberg

1.28

SCR Altach

1.16

TSV Hartberg creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

1.07

creates per match

0.85

1.47

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

TSV Hartberg

1.07

SCR Altach

0.85

allows per match

TSV Hartberg

1.47

SCR Altach

1.49

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

TSV Hartberg+0.16scores more

SCR Altach+0.23scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Hartberg ↓

SCR Altach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

TSV Hartberg or draw

67%

TSV Hartberg or SCR Altach

73%

Draw or SCR Altach

61%

Winning margin

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+

17%

SCR Altach wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals

72%

TSV Hartberg 2+ goals

37%

TSV Hartberg 3+ goals

14%

SCR Altach 1+ goals

69%

SCR Altach 2+ goals

32%

SCR Altach 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)

54%

SCR Altach (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Hartberg at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.47 · 13 matches

SCR Altach away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.49 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Hartberg attack 1.07 + SCR Altach defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.28

SCR Altach attack 0.85 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

TSV Hartberg scores more

39%

level

27%

SCR Altach scores more

33%

TSV Hartberg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "TSV Hartberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

R. Sallinger

TSV Hartberg · G

7.9

Match Events

16'

L. Fadinger← L. Kronberger

30'

31'

41'

42'

45+1'

46'

46'

48'

D. Avdijaj↳ J. Omoregie

54'

F. Milojević← S. Bahloul

54'

L. Lukačević← L. Jäger

61'

D. Prokop← M. Fillafer

67'

F. Demir← D. Avdijaj

68'

P. Mijić↳ Y. Diarra

74'

T. Kainz← J. Omoregie

74'

M. Hoffmann← B. Markuš

75'

L. Fridrikas← C. Gebauer

75'

D. Kameri← M. Ouédraogo

90+2'

Tobias Kainz

90'

Leonardo Lukačević

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TSVSCR

Overview

67%Possession33%

9Total Shots10

3Corners8

11Fouls18

Shots

9Total Shots10

2On Target2

3Off Target5

4Blocked3

4Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

67%Possession33%

539Total Passes257

450Accurate Passes177

83%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls18

2Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1