TSV Hartberg 0–0 Lask Linz: Result & Stats

TSV Hartberg

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lask Linz

2/18/2024

Bundesliga · Round 19PROfertil ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

TSV Hartberg31%

×Draw25%

Lask Linz44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TSV HartbergExpected goals in this matchLask Linz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.54

TSV Hartberg

1.26

Lask Linz

1.54

Lask Linz creates 22% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 130 away

1.30

creates per match

1.52

1.55

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

TSV Hartberg

1.30

Lask Linz

1.52

allows per match

TSV Hartberg

1.55

Lask Linz

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TSV Hartberg+0.00on par

Lask Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Hartberg ↓

Lask Linz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

TSV Hartberg or draw

56%

TSV Hartberg or Lask Linz

75%

Draw or Lask Linz

69%

Winning margin

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+

13%

Lask Linz wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals

72%

TSV Hartberg 2+ goals

36%

TSV Hartberg 3+ goals

13%

Lask Linz 1+ goals

79%

Lask Linz 2+ goals

45%

Lask Linz 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)

42%

Lask Linz (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Hartberg at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.55 · 131 matches

Lask Linz away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Hartberg attack 1.30 + Lask Linz defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.26

Lask Linz attack 1.52 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

TSV Hartberg scores more

31%

level

25%

Lask Linz scores more

44%

Lask Linz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lask Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff