Lask Linz 3–3 TSV Hartberg: Result & Stats

Lask Linz

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

TSV Hartberg

10/5/2025

Bundesliga · Round 9Raiffeisen Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Lask Linz50%

×Draw23%

TSV Hartberg27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lask LinzExpected goals in this matchTSV Hartberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.27

Lask Linz

1.79

TSV Hartberg

1.27

Lask Linz creates 41% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 131 away

1.82

creates per match

1.40

1.14

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Lask Linz

1.82

TSV Hartberg

1.40

allows per match

Lask Linz

1.14

TSV Hartberg

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lask Linz+0.00on par

TSV Hartberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lask Linz ↓

TSV Hartberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Lask Linz or draw

73%

Lask Linz or TSV Hartberg

77%

Draw or TSV Hartberg

50%

Winning margin

Lask Linz wins by 2+

27%

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lask Linz 1+ goals

83%

Lask Linz 2+ goals

53%

Lask Linz 3+ goals

26%

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals

72%

TSV Hartberg 2+ goals

36%

TSV Hartberg 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lask Linz (draw refunded)

65%

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lask Linz at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.14 · 130 matches

TSV Hartberg away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.76 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lask Linz attack 1.82 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.79

TSV Hartberg attack 1.40 + Lask Linz defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lask Linz scores more

50%

level

23%

TSV Hartberg scores more

27%

Lask Linz at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lask Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff