TSV Hartberg 5–1 Deutschlandsberger SC

TSV Hartberg

5 – 1

Deutschlandsberger SC

1/13/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Stadion Rohrbach - Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

TSV Hartberg42%

×Draw19%

Deutschlandsberger SC39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TSV HartbergExpected goals in this matchDeutschlandsberger SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

2.38

TSV Hartberg

2.48

Deutschlandsberger SC

2.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

2.46

creates per match

3.75

1.00

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

TSV Hartberg

2.46

Deutschlandsberger SC

3.75

allows per match

TSV Hartberg

1.00

Deutschlandsberger SC

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TSV Hartberg+0.00on par

Deutschlandsberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Hartberg ↓

Deutschlandsberger SC →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–34%

1–43%

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

TSV Hartberg or draw

61%

TSV Hartberg or Deutschlandsberger SC

81%

Draw or Deutschlandsberger SC

58%

Winning margin

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+

25%

Deutschlandsberger SC wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals

92%

TSV Hartberg 2+ goals

70%

TSV Hartberg 3+ goals

44%

Deutschlandsberger SC 1+ goals

91%

Deutschlandsberger SC 2+ goals

68%

Deutschlandsberger SC 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)

52%

Deutschlandsberger SC (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

TSV Hartberg at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Deutschlandsberger SC away — creates 3.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

TSV Hartberg attack 2.46 + Deutschlandsberger SC defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.48

Deutschlandsberger SC attack 3.75 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

TSV Hartberg scores more

42%

level

19%

Deutschlandsberger SC scores more

39%

TSV Hartberg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "TSV Hartberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff