TSV 1860 München 4–1 WSG Wattens: Result & Stats

TSV 1860 München

4 – 1

WSG Wattens

1/10/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

TSV 1860 München28%

×Draw18%

WSG Wattens54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TSV 1860 MünchenExpected goals in this matchWSG Wattens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

3.00

TSV 1860 München

2.17

WSG Wattens

3.00

WSG Wattens creates 38% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

3.33

creates per match

5.33

0.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

TSV 1860 München

3.33

WSG Wattens

5.33

allows per match

TSV 1860 München

0.67

WSG Wattens

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TSV 1860 München+0.00on par

WSG Wattens+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes84
No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV 1860 München ↓

WSG Wattens →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–36%

1–44%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–35%

3–43%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

75%25%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

TSV 1860 München or draw

46%

TSV 1860 München or WSG Wattens

82%

Draw or WSG Wattens

72%

Winning margin

TSV 1860 München wins by 2+

15%

WSG Wattens wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

TSV 1860 München 1+ goals

89%

TSV 1860 München 2+ goals

64%

TSV 1860 München 3+ goals

36%

WSG Wattens 1+ goals

95%

WSG Wattens 2+ goals

79%

WSG Wattens 3+ goals

56%

Draw no bet

TSV 1860 München (draw refunded)

34%

WSG Wattens (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

80%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

TSV 1860 München at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

WSG Wattens away — creates 5.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

TSV 1860 München attack 3.33 + WSG Wattens defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

WSG Wattens attack 5.33 + TSV 1860 München defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

TSV 1860 München scores more

28%

level

18%

WSG Wattens scores more

54%

WSG Wattens at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "WSG Wattens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff