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Tsirang vs Southern City — Premier League 2023

Tsirang
Tsirang
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Southern City
Southern City
9/19/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Regular SeasonTsirang Artificial Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Tsirang73%
×Draw14%
Southern City12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tsirang
3.06
Southern City
1.22

Tsirang creates 151% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 9 away

creates per match

Tsirang
1.68
Southern City
0.44

allows per match

Tsirang
2.00
Southern City
4.44

finishing

Tsirang+0.00on par
Southern City+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsirang ↓

Southern City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Tsirang or draw
88%
Tsirang or Southern City
86%
Draw or Southern City
27%

Winning margin

Tsirang wins by 2+
54%
Southern City wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tsirang 1+ goals
95%
Tsirang 2+ goals
80%
Tsirang 3+ goals
57%
Southern City 1+ goals
70%
Southern City 2+ goals
34%
Southern City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tsirang (draw refunded)
86%
Southern City (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsirang at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.00 · 22 matches

Southern City away — creates 0.44, concedes 4.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsirang attack 1.68 + Southern City defence 4.44 → ÷2 → 3.06

Southern City attack 0.44 + Tsirang defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Tsirang scores more
73%
level
14%
Southern City scores more
12%

Tsirang at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Tsirang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tsirang 1–0 Southern City

Tsirang beat Southern City 1-0 in Premier League on September 19, 2025.

The match was played at Tsirang Artificial Turf in Damphu.