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Tshinkunku vs Tanganyika — Ligue 1 2019

Tshinkunku
Tshinkunku
AWD
3 – 0
Tanganyika
Tanganyika
11/15/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Tshinkunku32%
×Draw32%
Tanganyika36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tshinkunku
0.93
Tanganyika
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 31 away

creates per match

Tshinkunku
0.56
Tanganyika
0.94

allows per match

Tshinkunku
1.07
Tanganyika
1.29

finishing

Tshinkunku+0.00on par
Tanganyika+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tshinkunku ↓

Tanganyika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tshinkunku or draw
64%
Tshinkunku or Tanganyika
68%
Draw or Tanganyika
68%

Winning margin

Tshinkunku wins by 2+
12%
Tanganyika wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tshinkunku 1+ goals
61%
Tshinkunku 2+ goals
24%
Tshinkunku 3+ goals
7%
Tanganyika 1+ goals
63%
Tanganyika 2+ goals
26%
Tanganyika 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tshinkunku (draw refunded)
47%
Tanganyika (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tshinkunku at home — creates 0.56, concedes 1.07 · 43 matches

Tanganyika away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tshinkunku attack 0.56 + Tanganyika defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.93

Tanganyika attack 0.94 + Tshinkunku defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tshinkunku scores more
32%
level
32%
Tanganyika scores more
36%

Tanganyika at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tanganyika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tshinkunku face Tanganyika (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 returns with Tshinkunku hosting Tanganyika. Match starts November 15, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.