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Tshinkunku vs Panda B5 — Ligue 1 2019

Tshinkunku
Tshinkunku
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Panda B5
Panda B5
11/30/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 8Stade des Jeunes de Katoka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tshinkunku49%
×Draw29%
Panda B522%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tshinkunku
1.27
Panda B5
0.74

Tshinkunku creates 72% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 52 away

creates per match

Tshinkunku
0.56
Panda B5
0.40

allows per match

Tshinkunku
1.07
Panda B5
1.98

finishing

Tshinkunku+0.00on par
Panda B5+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tshinkunku ↓

Panda B5 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tshinkunku or draw
78%
Tshinkunku or Panda B5
71%
Draw or Panda B5
51%

Winning margin

Tshinkunku wins by 2+
23%
Panda B5 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tshinkunku 1+ goals
72%
Tshinkunku 2+ goals
36%
Tshinkunku 3+ goals
14%
Panda B5 1+ goals
52%
Panda B5 2+ goals
17%
Panda B5 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tshinkunku (draw refunded)
69%
Panda B5 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tshinkunku at home — creates 0.56, concedes 1.07 · 43 matches

Panda B5 away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tshinkunku attack 0.56 + Panda B5 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.27

Panda B5 attack 0.40 + Tshinkunku defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tshinkunku scores more
49%
level
29%
Panda B5 scores more
22%

Tshinkunku at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tshinkunku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Tshinkunku 1–0 Panda B5

Tshinkunku beat Panda B5 1-0 in Ligue 1 on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stade des Jeunes de Katoka in Kananga.