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Tshinkunku vs Groupe Bazano — Ligue 1 2019

Tshinkunku
Tshinkunku
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Groupe Bazano
Groupe Bazano
4/13/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade des Jeunes de Katoka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tshinkunku34%
×Draw33%
Groupe Bazano33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tshinkunku
0.92
Groupe Bazano
0.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 73 away

creates per match

Tshinkunku
0.56
Groupe Bazano
0.70

allows per match

Tshinkunku
1.07
Groupe Bazano
1.27

finishing

Tshinkunku+0.00on par
Groupe Bazano+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tshinkunku ↓

Groupe Bazano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tshinkunku or draw
67%
Tshinkunku or Groupe Bazano
67%
Draw or Groupe Bazano
66%

Winning margin

Tshinkunku wins by 2+
12%
Groupe Bazano wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tshinkunku 1+ goals
60%
Tshinkunku 2+ goals
23%
Tshinkunku 3+ goals
7%
Groupe Bazano 1+ goals
59%
Groupe Bazano 2+ goals
22%
Groupe Bazano 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tshinkunku (draw refunded)
51%
Groupe Bazano (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tshinkunku at home — creates 0.56, concedes 1.07 · 43 matches

Groupe Bazano away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.27 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tshinkunku attack 0.56 + Groupe Bazano defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.92

Groupe Bazano attack 0.70 + Tshinkunku defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Tshinkunku scores more
34%
level
33%
Groupe Bazano scores more
33%

Tshinkunku at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Tshinkunku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Tshinkunku 1–0 Groupe Bazano

Tshinkunku beat Groupe Bazano 1-0 in Ligue 1 on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Stade des Jeunes de Katoka in Kananga.