Tshinkunku 0–0 Don Bosco: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Tshinkunku

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Don Bosco

10/15/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 2Stade des Jeunes de Katoka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tshinkunku31%

×Draw33%

Don Bosco36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TshinkunkuExpected goals in this matchDon Bosco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

0.96

Tshinkunku

0.86

Don Bosco

0.96

Don Bosco creates 12% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 96 away

0.56

creates per match

0.85

1.07

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Tshinkunku

0.56

Don Bosco

0.85

allows per match

Tshinkunku

1.07

Don Bosco

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tshinkunku+0.00on par

Don Bosco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tshinkunku ↓

Don Bosco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–116%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Tshinkunku or draw

64%

Tshinkunku or Don Bosco

67%

Draw or Don Bosco

69%

Winning margin

Tshinkunku wins by 2+

10%

Don Bosco wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tshinkunku 1+ goals

58%

Tshinkunku 2+ goals

21%

Tshinkunku 3+ goals

6%

Don Bosco 1+ goals

62%

Don Bosco 2+ goals

25%

Don Bosco 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tshinkunku (draw refunded)

46%

Don Bosco (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tshinkunku at home — creates 0.56, concedes 1.07 · 43 matches

Don Bosco away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.16 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tshinkunku attack 0.56 + Don Bosco defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.86

Don Bosco attack 0.85 + Tshinkunku defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tshinkunku scores more

31%

level

33%

Don Bosco scores more

36%

Don Bosco at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Don Bosco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff