Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila vs Royal AM — Premier Soccer League 2018

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Royal AM
Royal AM
10/19/2021Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 6Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila40%
×Draw28%
Royal AM31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
1.24
Royal AM
1.06

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila creates 17% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 50 away

creates per match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
0.86
Royal AM
1.10

allows per match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
1.01
Royal AM
1.62

finishing

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila+0.00on par
Royal AM+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila ↓

Royal AM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila or draw
69%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila or Royal AM
72%
Draw or Royal AM
60%

Winning margin

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila wins by 2+
18%
Royal AM wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1+ goals
71%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 2+ goals
35%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 3+ goals
13%
Royal AM 1+ goals
65%
Royal AM 2+ goals
29%
Royal AM 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila (draw refunded)
56%
Royal AM (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Royal AM away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.62 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila attack 0.86 + Royal AM defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.24

Royal AM attack 1.10 + Tshakhuma Madzivhadila defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila scores more
40%
level
28%
Royal AM scores more
31%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tshakhuma Madzivhadila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tshakhuma Madzivhadila vs Royal AM

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila and Royal AM drew 2-2 in Premier Soccer League on October 19, 2021.

The match was played at Peter Mokaba Stadium in Pietersburg.