Royal AM 2–2 Marumo Gallants: Result & Stats

Royal AM

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Marumo Gallants

8/21/2022

Premier Soccer League · Round 4Chatsworth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Royal AM46%

×Draw29%

Marumo Gallants25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Royal AMExpected goals in this matchMarumo Gallants

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.85

Royal AM

1.27

Marumo Gallants

0.85

Royal AM creates 49% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 76 away

1.08

creates per match

0.72

0.98

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Royal AM

1.08

Marumo Gallants

0.72

allows per match

Royal AM

0.98

Marumo Gallants

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Royal AM+0.00on par

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal AM ↓

Marumo Gallants →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Royal AM or draw

75%

Royal AM or Marumo Gallants

71%

Draw or Marumo Gallants

54%

Winning margin

Royal AM wins by 2+

21%

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Royal AM 1+ goals

72%

Royal AM 2+ goals

36%

Royal AM 3+ goals

14%

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals

57%

Marumo Gallants 2+ goals

21%

Marumo Gallants 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Royal AM (draw refunded)

65%

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal AM at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Marumo Gallants away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal AM attack 1.08 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Marumo Gallants attack 0.72 + Royal AM defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Royal AM scores more

46%

level

29%

Marumo Gallants scores more

25%

Royal AM at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Royal AM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff