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Tshakhuma Madzivhadila vs Black Leopards — Premier Soccer League 2018

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Black Leopards
Black Leopards
5/1/2021Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 20Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila46%
×Draw28%
Black Leopards26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
1.33
Black Leopards
0.94

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila creates 41% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 47 away

creates per match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
0.86
Black Leopards
0.87

allows per match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
1.01
Black Leopards
1.81

finishing

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila+0.00on par
Black Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila ↓

Black Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila or draw
74%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila or Black Leopards
72%
Draw or Black Leopards
54%

Winning margin

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila wins by 2+
21%
Black Leopards wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1+ goals
74%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 2+ goals
38%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 3+ goals
15%
Black Leopards 1+ goals
61%
Black Leopards 2+ goals
24%
Black Leopards 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila (draw refunded)
63%
Black Leopards (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Black Leopards away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila attack 0.86 + Black Leopards defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.33

Black Leopards attack 0.87 + Tshakhuma Madzivhadila defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila scores more
46%
level
28%
Black Leopards scores more
26%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tshakhuma Madzivhadila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1–2 Black Leopards

Black Leopards beat Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Peter Mokaba Stadium in Pietersburg.