Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1–1 Amazulu: Result & Stats

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Amazulu

R. Manzini 58'

A. Memela 33'

12/5/2020

Premier Soccer League · Round 5Thohoyandou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila36%

×Draw32%

Amazulu32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tshakhuma MadzivhadilaExpected goals in this matchAmazulu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.92

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

1.00

Amazulu

0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 120 away

0.86

creates per match

0.83

1.01

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

0.86

Amazulu

0.83

allows per match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

1.01

Amazulu

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila+0.00on par

Amazulu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila ↓

Amazulu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila or draw

68%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila or Amazulu

68%

Draw or Amazulu

64%

Winning margin

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila wins by 2+

14%

Amazulu wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1+ goals

63%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 2+ goals

26%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 3+ goals

8%

Amazulu 1+ goals

60%

Amazulu 2+ goals

23%

Amazulu 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila (draw refunded)

53%

Amazulu (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Amazulu away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.15 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila attack 0.86 + Amazulu defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Amazulu attack 0.83 + Tshakhuma Madzivhadila defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila scores more

36%

level

32%

Amazulu scores more

32%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tshakhuma Madzivhadila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

T. Masilela

33'

A. Memela↳ A. Mulenga

51'

58'

60'

65'

71'

76'

S. Ntsundwana← S. Mthembu

77'

M. Mphambaniso← B. Theron

83'

S. Magubane← S. Sithebe

90+5'

X. Mlambo

Tshakhuma

Amazulu

44

24

25

5

6

▼

Ncube

15

⚽

Memela

8

Makhaula

9

▼

Mthembu

30

A

Mulenga

10

▼

22

36

27

15

▼

19

32

10

22

3

9

⚽

Manzini

14

▼

Lamola

12

Shonga

Manager: J. Masutha

60'▲M. Ngele←▼L. Lamola

77'▲M. Mphambaniso←▼B. Theron

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila substitutes

11Ngele25Mphambaniso23Mnyamane16Mhlongo6Timm24Thopola20Ndlondlo5Mabotja8Nevhulamba

Manager: A. Dlamini

65'▲X. Mlambo←▼B. Ncube

76'▲S. Ntsundwana←▼S. Mthembu

83'▲S. Magubane←▼S. Sithebe

Amazulu substitutes

23Mlambo45Ntsundwana11Magubane29Mabiliso12Mkhize3Madela27Nyongo43Boshoff19Chawapiwa

Match Recap: Tshakhuma Madzivhadila vs Amazulu

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila and Amazulu drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on December 5, 2020.

Goals: A. Memela (33'), R. Manzini (58').

The match was played at Thohoyandou Stadium in Thohoyandou.

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila vs Amazulu — Premier Soccer League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tshakhuma Madzivhadila vs Amazulu