Marumo Gallants 1–0 Amazulu: Result & Stats

Marumo Gallants

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Amazulu

Daniel Msendami 3'

9/28/2024

Premier Soccer League · Round 3Free State Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Marumo Gallants36%

×Draw31%

Amazulu32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marumo GallantsExpected goals in this matchAmazulu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

0.93

Marumo Gallants

1.01

Amazulu

0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 119 away

0.86

creates per match

0.84

1.01

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Marumo Gallants

0.86

Amazulu

0.84

allows per match

Marumo Gallants

1.01

Amazulu

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Amazulu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marumo Gallants ↓

Amazulu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Marumo Gallants or draw

68%

Marumo Gallants or Amazulu

69%

Draw or Amazulu

64%

Winning margin

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+

14%

Amazulu wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals

64%

Marumo Gallants 2+ goals

27%

Marumo Gallants 3+ goals

8%

Amazulu 1+ goals

61%

Amazulu 2+ goals

24%

Amazulu 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)

53%

Amazulu (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marumo Gallants at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Amazulu away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.16 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marumo Gallants attack 0.86 + Amazulu defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.01

Amazulu attack 0.84 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Marumo Gallants scores more

36%

level

31%

Amazulu scores more

32%

Marumo Gallants at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Marumo Gallants will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Ben Motshwari

Amazulu · M

7.9

Match Events

3'

Daniel Msendami

31'

Taariq Fielies

46'

Boniface Haba← Mondli Mbanjwa

64'

Mlungisi Khumalo← Siyabulela Shai

64'

Thapelo Mokobodi← Sekela Sithole

64'

Sede Junior Dion← Tshepang Moremi

64'

Rowan Lancaster Human← Celimpilo Ngema

68'

Xolani Mlambo← Mpambaniso Monde

76'

Andiswa Sithole← Ethan Duncan Brooks

86'

Siyabonga Nhlapo← Daniel Msendami

86'

Wayde Jooste← Thembela Sikhakhane

87'

Washington Arubi

88'

Wayde Jooste

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MarumoAmazulu

Overview

41%Possession59%

12Total Shots10

1Corners8

15Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots10

4On Target1

5Off Target6

3Blocked3

6Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

315Total Passes449

234Accurate Passes372

74%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0