TSC Backa Topola 1–0 Radnicki NIS: Result & Stats

TSC Backa Topola

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Radnicki NIS

12/3/2023

Super Liga · Round 17TSC Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

TSC Backa Topola49%

×Draw25%

Radnicki NIS26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TSC Backa TopolaExpected goals in this matchRadnicki NIS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.09

TSC Backa Topola

1.61

Radnicki NIS

1.09

TSC Backa Topola creates 48% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 148 away

1.80

creates per match

1.01

1.17

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

TSC Backa Topola

1.80

Radnicki NIS

1.01

allows per match

TSC Backa Topola

1.17

Radnicki NIS

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSC Backa Topola ↓

Radnicki NIS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

TSC Backa Topola or draw

74%

TSC Backa Topola or Radnicki NIS

75%

Draw or Radnicki NIS

51%

Winning margin

TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+

26%

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals

80%

TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals

48%

TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals

22%

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals

66%

Radnicki NIS 2+ goals

30%

Radnicki NIS 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)

66%

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSC Backa Topola at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.17 · 128 matches

Radnicki NIS away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.43 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSC Backa Topola attack 1.80 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.61

Radnicki NIS attack 1.01 + TSC Backa Topola defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

TSC Backa Topola scores more

49%

level

25%

Radnicki NIS scores more

26%

TSC Backa Topola at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "TSC Backa Topola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff