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Radnicki NIS vs TSC Backa Topola — Super Liga 2026

Radnicki NIS
Radnicki NIS
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
TSC Backa Topola
TSC Backa Topola
7/28/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 2Gradski stadion Dubočica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Radnicki NIS40%
×Draw25%
TSC Backa Topola35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki NIS
1.43
TSC Backa Topola
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 125 away

creates per match

Radnicki NIS
1.54
TSC Backa Topola
1.54

allows per match

Radnicki NIS
1.13
TSC Backa Topola
1.31

finishing

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par
TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki NIS ↓

TSC Backa Topola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Radnicki NIS or draw
65%
Radnicki NIS or TSC Backa Topola
75%
Draw or TSC Backa Topola
60%

Winning margin

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+
19%
TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals
76%
Radnicki NIS 2+ goals
42%
Radnicki NIS 3+ goals
17%
TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals
74%
TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals
38%
TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)
53%
TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki NIS at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.13 · 147 matches

TSC Backa Topola away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.31 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki NIS attack 1.54 + TSC Backa Topola defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.43

TSC Backa Topola attack 1.54 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Radnicki NIS scores more
40%
level
25%
TSC Backa Topola scores more
35%

Radnicki NIS at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Radnicki NIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnicki NIS vs TSC Backa Topola

Radnicki NIS beat TSC Backa Topola 1-0 in Super Liga on July 28, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Dubočica in Leskovac.