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TSC Backa Topola vs RAD — Super Liga 2018

TSC Backa Topola
TSC Backa Topola
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RAD
RAD
2/12/2021Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 21Stadion Senta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

TSC Backa Topola59%
×Draw23%
RAD18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSC Backa Topola
1.76
RAD
0.86

TSC Backa Topola creates 105% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 53 away

creates per match

TSC Backa Topola
1.80
RAD
0.55

allows per match

TSC Backa Topola
1.17
RAD
1.72

finishing

TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par
RAD+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSC Backa Topola ↓

RAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

TSC Backa Topola or draw
82%
TSC Backa Topola or RAD
77%
Draw or RAD
41%

Winning margin

TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+
33%
RAD wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals
83%
TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals
52%
TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals
26%
RAD 1+ goals
58%
RAD 2+ goals
21%
RAD 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)
76%
RAD (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSC Backa Topola at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.17 · 128 matches

RAD away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.72 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSC Backa Topola attack 1.80 + RAD defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.76

RAD attack 0.55 + TSC Backa Topola defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

TSC Backa Topola scores more
59%
level
23%
RAD scores more
18%

TSC Backa Topola at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "TSC Backa Topola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: TSC Backa Topola 0–0 RAD

TSC Backa Topola and RAD drew 0-0 in Super Liga on February 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Senta in Senta.